Who moves out of the crowd to win The Open?

Yes, Billy Horschel suddenly was in the lead.

Yes, Scottie Scheffler was very much in contention.

And yes, as forecast, the Scottish weather was as unpleasant as double bogeys Shane Lowry and Dan Brown ll had on their scorecards.

It was round three of the tournament we will call the very open Open, best played with patience and a good break when most needed.

That was Saturday at Royal Troon, setting up a Sunday of possibilities and probably better conditions. Probably. But keep those windbreakers and umbrellas handy.

Everyone has a guess on the eventual champion, including the guys at the Golf Channel. Paul McGinley, a one-time British Ryder Cup captain, and Johnson Wagner, who until recently played the PGA Tour, chose Scheffler as the man who will win this 152nd Open. And why not?

He’s won six times this year on Tour, including the Masters, and is No. 1 in the world rankings

“The last round of a major is different,” said MGinley, and while he never mentioned the word pressure he certainly implied it.

Indeed, but as McGinley cautioned, that’s a crowded leaderboard of experienced players. Including, the man at the top, Horschel, who has eight victories, although no majors.

Horschel had a 2-under par 69 for a 54-total of 4-under 209. That put him a shot in front of six others—told you it was a crowded leaderboard—Daniel Brown(73), Thriston Lawrence (65}, Sam Burns (65), Russell Henley (66), Xander Schauffele (69), and Justin Rose (73).

Scheffler was at 211 after a 71 and seemed as satisfied as anyone can be on a day golf became a survival game.

Although the 37-year-old Herschel grew up and resides in Florida, he said he does cross the Atlantic in autumn to play the Dunhill Cup so he is not unfamiliar with the climate in the British Isles.

“I’m excited to be here. I’ve wanted to be here my entire life,” he said. “I’m finally here.”

He’s there, meaning first place, in part, because the second day leader, Shane Lowry, winner of the Open in 2019, ran into massive trouble from the fourth hole on. In front by five shots after the third hole, he fell victim to the shortest hole on the course, the famous–or should that be infamous—123-yards, par 3 “postage stamp”. He couldn’t get out of one of the steep bunkers and took a double bogey and was en route to a disaster, a 77.  That left him at 212, 3 back of the leader.

Horschel’s short game was the key. He saved par on five straight holes on the back nine when he couldn’t reach the greens because of the wind. He missed a chance at a sixth straight par save on the 18th but was still ahead of everyone else.

The downpour didn’t start until midday. Burns and Lawrence had completed play, which was to their advantage.

“I’m making a lot of birdies in the clubhouse standing right here,” Lawrence said. 

He was in the right place at the right time. He also made enough of the right shots. Will he be able to make those shots Sunday?

We will find out and will know “the champion golfer of The Year,” as the Open winner is known.